Louisville vs North Carolina State 12/27/2011

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Louisville winning 41% of simulations, and North Carolina State 59% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Louisville commits fewer turnovers in 35% of simulations and they go on to win 56% when they take care of the ball. North Carolina State wins 72% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Dominique Brown is averaging 53 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (25% chance) then he helps his team win 58%. Mike Glennon is averaging 274 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (38% chance) then he helps his team win 79%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NCST +0

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